http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=322769

Iraq war could engulf region, Britain warns US

By Kim Sengupta

INDEPENDENT (London) 09 August 2002

Britain has strongly advised the United States against attacking Iraq,
warning that it risked intensifying the conflicts in Afghanistan, Israel
and Kashmir, senior defence and diplomatic sources say.

In a sign of deepening discord between the two allies, British ministers
and officials in Whitehall believe that a new war would "contaminate" the
other crises."These are issues the Americans appear not to have
considered," said one official.

They also have grave reservations about President George Bush's demand for
a "regime change" in Baghdad because, London believes, no alternative
regime has been identified for such a change to take place. Britain may be
lumbered with leading a massive stabilisation force for "up to five years"
in an anarchic post-war Iraq, with the prospect of the country being
partitioned.

While Britain is certain that Saddam Hussein has acquired some form of
chemical and biological weapons capacity since the United Nations weapons
inspectors were expelled from Iraq, ministers have seen no evidence that
he can use them in any meaningful way against the West.

America has countered the British worries by maintaining that each
conflict in the region can be contained and that it is impractical to wait
for every issue to be resolved before taking action against President
Saddam, according to the officials.

But while the reservations of Britain, perceived as America's staunchest
ally in its "war on terrorism", have prompted some soul-searching among
the Pentagon hawks, they have struck a chord at the State Department,
where Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, is known to be more cautious
about attacking Iraq.

Britain's misgivings emerged yesterday as President Saddam appeared on
television to speak out against an invasion. The Iraqi leader's rare
public appearance in a grey suit rather than a military uniform, and at a
desk spread with white lilies, was calculated to rally international
opinion against an American-led assault.

President Saddam declared that any attack by the "forces of evil" Iraqi
terminology for the US and Britain would result in them "carrying their
coffins back to die in disgraceful failure".

The Iraqi leader also used his speech to offer an olive branch to Iran, a
country named by President Bush as part of the "axis of evil", along with
Iraq and North Korea. In Tehran, the Iranian Defence Minister said his
country may be next in line for a US onslaught after Iraq. Ali Shamkhani
said: "Iran will retaliate in the severest manner against any aggression
against its soil, in whatever form and by whoever."

The Bush administration dismissed President Saddam's speech as irrelevant
"bluster" and containing nothing new. A spokesman said: "He made
commitments at the end of the Gulf War to the international community to
disarm, to cease being a threat to his neighbours, the region and the
world. He needs to live up to his commitments."

Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, said the speech by President Saddam
did not "give an inch" on the return of weapons inspectors to Baghdad. The
Iraqi leader said he sought an "equitable dialogue" with the UN, but Mr
Annan said his statements didn't show "any flexibility from their previous
position". Asked if the speech gave any cause for optimism, Mr Annan said:
"Not at this stage, not unless there are unforeseen developments."